It's 7º Fahrenheit in Detroit right now. -9º with the wind chill. But rejoicing will be heard throughout Michigan on Thursday, and not just because the mercury is expected to climb to a balmy high of 28º.
You see, Thursday is the day that Tiger pitchers and catchers are due to report to Lakeland for spring training, and Dave Dombrowski's stellar off-season, spent acquiring Miguel Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Dontrelle Willis and Jacque Jones, really stoked the hot-stove fires for Detroit baseball fans. Current pre-season expectations for the Tigers are the highest we've seen since the mid-1980's. We're ready for some baseball.
For the past few weeks various publications have been releasing their projections, predictions and analysis of the Tigers roster. And just as I've done in the past, I've skimmed through them, nodding and wincing and raising an eyebrow or two whenever it seemed appropriate. But I've never bothered to jot down my own projections in the past, because it's always seemed to me as if folks who do so tend to end up rooting harder for their projections than they do for their favorite team.
But, as I mentioned above, it's really cold outside today. I mean, it's Alaska-cold. With that in mind, and with the Wings on a three-game losing streak (Lidstrom's game-tying goal yesterday absolutely should not have been disallowed, by the way, and the Anaheim Ducks are a dirty, goalie-running hockey team who will get their comeuppance), I just feel like thinking about baseball for a few minutes this evening.
So, just for fun, here are some off-the-cuff, scientifically baseless performance predictions and hackneyed analysis of your 2008 Detroit Tigers. (I only bothered with the starting rotation and position players whom I expect to get the majority of starts. I didn't look at the relief pitching at all because, with Joel Zumaya still not healthy, I get kind of ornery when I think about the Tigers' bullpen. I will project, however, that Jason Grilli will continue to make me long for the good old days of Doug Bair and SId Monge.)
•C, Ivan Rodriguez: 118 games, 465 at-bats, 7 home runs, 54 RBI, .271 avg., .293 OBP. I know, I know I'm projecting a .022 difference between Pudge's batting average and on-base percentage. Believe it or not, that marginal difference can be considered optimistic for a guy as undisciplined at the plate as Rodriguez has become over the past few years. I'm a devout believer in the Church of Getting Your Pitch and Hitting It Hard, even at the expense of working the count, but Pudge really has turned into just the kind of guy who gives free-swingers a bad name.
•1B, Carlos Guillen: 144 games, 548 at-bats, 23 home runs, 104 RBI, .308 avg., .365 OBP. I'm a big fan of Carlos moving from short to first. I expect that playing first base full-time is going to be significantly easier on Guillen's legs than playing shortstop, and a healthy Guillen is a must for Detroit this season. Obviously, he's a huge offensive upgrade over his predecessor, Sean Casey. Edgar Renteria, meanwhile, will be a substantial defensive upgrade over Guillen at short. Everybody wins. Even Casey, who''ll have a great seat at Fenway all summer as a role-player for the Red Sox.
•2B, Placido Polanco: 130 games, 517 at-bats, 8 home runs, 65 RBI, .324 avg., .385 OBP. If the Tigers are going to meet expectations, this is a guy who has to stay reasonably healthy. Polanco has the capacity to be the quintessential table-setter in the Detroit lineup. You really couldn't ask for a better hitter in the 2 hole. Now if he can just avoid the injury bug for a full season....
•SS, Edgar Renteria: 148 games, 585 at-bats, 13 home runs, 72 RBI, .286 avg., .349 OBP. Presuming he handles his defensive responsibilities as he's capable, Renteria doesn't need to be as good offensively as he was last year in Atlanta. He took some heat when his OBP dipped below .340 for two consecutive years in '04 and '05, but he bumped back up to .361 and .390 the past two seasons. This will be his second go-round in the American League, so look for a smoother transition to the AL than what he experienced during his 2005 stay with Boston.
•3B, Miguel Cabrera: 152 games, 587 at-bats, 32 home runs, 126 RBI, .327 avg., .410 OBP. Cabrera will own this town by August. That is all.
•LF, Jacque Jones / Marcus Thames Platoon: 154 games, 570 at-bats, 23 home runs, 81 RBI, .268 avg., .309 OBP. Left field is the biggest unknown in the Detroit lineup. You'd think that this would be a straight lefty-righty platoon, with Thames starting against southpaws and Jones starting against, uh, "northpaws." But if I had to pick out one veteran whom Jim Leyland will irrationally fall in love with, to the eternal (and loud) consternation of Tiger message board denizens, it would be Jacque Jones. Hey, with Casey and Neifi gone, someone has to fill the void, right?
•CF, Curtis Granderson: 155 games, 610 at-bats, 27 home runs, 83 RBI, .290 avg., .355 OBP. Granderson will be out to prove that last year's performance wasn't a fluke. Personally, while I'm not sure that Granderson will repeat his 4x20 (home runs, doubles, triples and steals) performance of last season, I am sure that Curtis isn't the kind of guy to get complacent. Some of his numbers might slip from his stellar sophomore campaign, but Tiger fans will certainly still count themselves lucky to have Granderson in the lineup every day.
•Right Field, Magglio Ordonez: 152 games, 585 at-bats, 26 home runs, 117 RBI, .331 avg., .386 OBP. Ordonez won't win back-to-back batting titles, but with the protection that this lineup should afford, he'll get his numbers. It should be another productive summer for Detroit's professional hitter.
•Designated Hitter, Gary Sheffield: 138 games, 504 at-bats, 28 home runs, 87 RBI, .278 avg., .351 OBP. It's a cliche to say that the Detroit lineup feeds off of Gary Sheffield, but just because it's a cliche doesn't mean it isn't true. The best description I can think of for Sheffield's approach at the plate is patient ferocity -- nobody in baseball swings the bat any harder, but you can be sure that if Sheff is swinging, it's going to be at his pitch, not yours. The question regarding Sheffield is how well he has recovered from the shoulder injury that hampered him throughout the second half of last season. If he's anywhere near 100%, look for another productive season in the heart of the Tiger lineup.
•"Super" Sub, Brandon Inge: 105 games, 360 at bats, 9 home runs, 52 RBI, .231 avg., .299 OBP. Inge may retain value as a guy who can be plugged into any defensive position and keep things afloat, but I don't think he's going to embrace the "super sub" role the same way he did back in 2004. Offensively, I think 2007 Inge is much closer to reality than 2006 Inge. Factor in the uncertainty of where he'll be playing on a day-to-day basis, and I think that 2008 will be a struggle for Brandon at the plate.
•Starting Pitcher, Justin Verlander: 33 games, 210 innings pitched, 3.57 ERA, 19 wins, 175 strikeouts. Verlander followed up on his Rookie of the Year Performance in '06 with a stellar '07 in which he solidified himself as one of the American League's premier starting pitchers. Durability aside, there's no reason not to expect more of the same in '08. Rookie Verlander was a thrower; sophomore Verlander was a pitcher. In his third year, look for Justin to emerge as the true ace of the Detroit staff -- a role Tiger fans are hoping that he'll fill for years to come.
•Starting Pitcher, Dontrelle Willis: 32 games, 198 innings pitched, 4.01 ERA, 16 wins, 145 strikeouts. Willis is coming off his worst season in the bigs, and he's thrown a ton of innings over the past four years. That's bad. But he's also going to be playing for a winner again, and he seems like the kind of guy who'll feed off the excitement at Comerica Park this summer. That's good. Some guys need a change of scenery, and I'm of a the opinion that Dontrelle will benefit from his.
•Starting Pitcher, Jeremy Bonderman: No Tiger has more to prove this season than Bonderman. Simply put, it's time to set the excuses aside and become a consistent big leaguer. As for projections, your guess is as good as mine. I've given up trying to figure this guy out. Just for fun, I'll say 29 games, 177 innings pitched, 4.96 ERA, 12 wins, 136 K's. Prove me wrong, Jeremy.
•Starting Pitcher, Nate Robertson: 30 games, 184 innings pitched, 4.54 ERA, 14 wins, 113 K's. That's right, Bondo -- I think Nate's going to win more games than you. Seriously. Prove me wrong. (I like Nate, by the way. Here's hoping he enjoys good run support, eats up some innings and has a career year in the win column. He deserves it.)
•Starting Pitcher, Kenny Rogers: 15 games, 98 innings pitched, 4.46 ERA, 6 wins, 54 K's. I just don't see Rogers holding up to a full season's worth of work. I'm just hoping he's reasonably healthy down the stretch. And Kenny, if it doesn't work out this year, don't fret -- we'll always have '06.
So, there you have it. Should be interesting to look back at this post come October. If I'm on the money, I'll remind you how smart I am, and if I totally miss the mark, I'll remind you that I pulled these numbers out of thin air.
Just 49 days until Opening Day....
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